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docs: [verified] move metric contracts under Measurement
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---
id: confirmed-policy-effects
slug: /measurement/confirmed-policy-effects
title: Confirmed policy effects
description: Definition, collection evidence and limitations for confirmed policy effects.
---
<div className="strategy-content">
**Target operating model — recommended contracts, not installed collection.** All owner and cadence entries below are proposals to confirm before the pilot, not assigned responsibilities or approved schedules.
**Prototype calculation — no live telemetry.** The synthetic example calculates this metric; it has no network collectors.
{/* contract:start */}
Eligible evaluated attempts with an actual confirmed prohibited effect; report attempts, blocked attempts and effects separately.
| Contract | Definition |
| --- | --- |
| Numerator | Distinct attempt_ids with confirmed prohibited action effect |
| Denominator | All evaluated eligible attempt_ids including failed and abandoned runs |
| Expression | N / D * 100 |
| Aggregation | percent |
| Unit | % |
| Eligible population | Governed skill trials or supported workflow attempts, reported separately for eval and live populations. |
| Exclusions | Out-of-scope runs; detection gaps remain coverage issues, not exclusions from known initiated population. |
| Events and source | attempt.started; policy.violation; gate.blocked; security audit and incident triage |
| Owner / cadence | Architecture & Security / Immediate incident action; weekly aggregates |
| Missing evidence | Unknown outcomes remain visible; zero detected effects never proves safety. Missing audits make rate provisional. |
| Gaming and limits | Hide incidents or inflate harmless trials; absolute severity counts and fixed task mix accompany rate. Descriptive signal, not causal AI productivity attribution. Source completeness, task mix and sampling limit inference; report uncertainty. Blocked attempts are not actual effects; any critical effect blocks promotion regardless of aggregate rate. |
{/* contract:end */}
Read the shared [collection and safeguards](./collection-and-safeguards.mdx) before collecting data; see the [synthetic example and limits](./synthetic-example.mdx).
Return to [Skills Measurement](./index.mdx).
</div>